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Monday, July 1, 2013

Stock and ETF newsletter 7/1/2013: $GLD, $UPL, $GDX, $UUP, $NOK, $BBRY, $SAN

Swing Positions:

$GDX

Metal and miner are bouncing as expected. $GDX gaped up and held good in the first hour. There was some heavy selling but could not really pull it lower into last week high. Then it just trended high again. I out 1/3 $GDX position when it failed at $25. I still like this name but just think I’d better trim into the strength as my positions are too heavy in GLD and GDX. Still hold 2/3 $GDX.
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$UGL (long $GLD)

$GLD already moved into my first target area – the down gap last week. The $GLD squeezed after broke up $120. The volume is okay. I definitely want to see higher volume to confirm this fight way back up. If I see weak volume, I may out this position quickly; otherwise I may look into trimming into strength between those two gaps. Currently I’m still holding full position in $GLD.
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One thing I am also looking at is the US dollar, I hope it reaches its short term resistance here and hopefully tops or pulls in a little. If that happens, it will give metal more time/less pressure to do “died cat bounce”.
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SNV

Just another boring trend up day, with increasing volume. Look good to me as it broke the 2.85 level, formed a small up flag and now broke the up flag again. Some of the financial names just recover off people’s radar. They may be priced lower than $10, traded with lower volume, but if you hold it for a while the swing range could be huge. Buffet’s 5 billion $BAC Long was one of the most amazing play to me. And it was a great recovery story + brilliant dividend play.
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NOK

I have been holding this $NOK longer than a week now. It was moving into the right direction but got hit when $BBRY sink this week. Today $NOK jumped back 3%.
The reasons I like this name are
1. The chart looks good to me. The price broke up the upper trend line of 2-year’s down trend. Then it rode the 50 SMA up and now sits on 200 and 50 SMA. If it gave in, I know where is the support and where to stop.
2. The down side risk is definitely lower than up side risk. To be frank, there was no mobile device company just out bankrupt, no matter how bad it was doing. Ericsson, MOTO, Alcatel all were in much worse shape but managed to find a way out. The reason behind that are these mobile companies hold (more or less) some patents that others can not by pass, and the brands always worth something for those who want to jump into this market. $NOK is well backed by other patents and branding.
3. Low price doesn’t mean cheap. That is right. But I want to participate in the potential M&A rumor play. The $BBRY is hypo high and I would not use it in my swing play (I’d Long $BBRY at $3). This name definitely suites me better for this purpose.
I am still holding a half size Long in $NOK.
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