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Thursday, July 18, 2013

7/18 Swing ETF and Stock newsletter: $NOK, $NTES, $LITB, $SNV, $MPO, $RGC, $DIS, $USO, $SCO, $GLD, $SLV

 

$LITB $NTES

I picked up couple Chinese web names as they are running really strong these days. Last week, I entered two full Long positions in $LITB and $NTES. One fast name, one slow name.

I have been following $NTES for a while. With Chinese names all popping up, I hope $NTES can finally break up. These two days look pretty good. Still holding in full position.

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You cannot buy Alibaba now (I will talk more about Alibaba with $YHOO) but you can buy another Chinese e-commerce name $LITB. This is a mini Alibaba. $LITB’s 2013 revenue should be around $300 to $350 million. With $17/share (833 million market cap), it’s < 3x to the revenue. For 70-90% annual growth, this evaluation is unbelievably low. After Long, I got 20% in just couple days which was too fast to me. I just could not let the profit slip away from me and exited around $17. I may reenter this.

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$RGC $DIS

$DIS broke up the down trend as highlighted in previous newsletter, and still looks ok. But This $RGC just popped up and roll back. Pretty disappointing price action. Now it’s almost even. I’m looking to scratch it if it cannot hold the upcoming 50 and 200 MA at around $18.4.

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$MPO

I have been holding $MPO for a while now. Added a small piece when it got down to $5.5. This name got dumped badly after IPO but I think it’s well undervalued and the rising oil should help $MPO find a leg. This week’s price action is pretty good. I’d like to break and hold $7 (50 MA). Still hold full position

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$USO $SCO

I was so gravely wrong about oil. Was trying to short it too early. Today’s oil squeeze stopped me out. This is my biggest lose in couple months. Hate it but I have to let it go. I really cannot afford the up side risk here. It just made 52 weeks high and cut into the gap down zone of Apr 2012. If it break up that gap zone, who knows how high it will go. Just sit aside now.

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$SLV $GLD

I played $GLD bounce last month and it turned out pretty good. Now precious metal really looks good. Their prices stabilized. I’d take a precious metal Long again in $SLV as I see it bases on long term better than $GLD.

$SLV monthly and daily

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$NOK

It broke up pretty good but rolled down to me. And today there is bogus downgrade but I really like the big intra day reverse. I will give it more space and time. Now still holding full position.

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Thanks for reading. I’d love to hear you, please leave your comments.

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Stock and ETF newsletter 7/9/2013: $NOK $BBRY $RGC $USO $SCO $UUP $QCOM $BRCM $INTC $NVDA


$NOK

$NOK is definitely hot averaging 2% up a day in last four sessions even though it got downgrade in Swedbank and S&P . It will report ER on 7/18, will watch it closely when it moves into the $4.5-5 resistance zoom and ER.

Still holding full position.
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$BBRY

I entered Long in $BBRY today when it started to pop out of the recent consolidation base. Still not sure if how much it could recover or even roll over and break down $9.5, but I’d like to try a tight Long play here. Risk $9.5.
Similar to $NOK, $BBRY also sees some bear comments today. Deutsche Bank out cautions on $BBRY and it gave up most of its morning gain. I really don’t like it.

I’m still holding full position here. Keep the stop in place.
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$USO $SCO $UUP

Oil has been strong for many days now. Now it is almost the highest price in a year. Around $103-104/barrel. Please notice that US dollar $UUP just rushed to recent high also, and IMF lower global growth for 2013 to 3.1% from 3.3% and 2014 to 3.8% from 4.0%. These are not very bullish to oil. I entered a small short through $SCO when $USO stalled at around $36.67. Unfortunately, oil moved higher little again this afternoon. I may ditch this soon if oil extends with strength, or scale in more if it shows weakness. I just don’t think it could sit here.

[update] the overnight China export data is really disappointing - down 3.1%. Coming together with the week export, the Chinese crude import in first half of 2013 also falls 1.4%. This is good news to our oil short position. But if oil still displays strength regardless of these, I would scratch the oil short soon.

Still in small oil short.
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$RGC

My $RGC is still battling with $19 resistance. Up a inch today. But up is good. still hold it with patience.
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$QCOM $BRCM $INTC $NVDA

When I look at chip makers’ stock, I just want to CRY. I’m not talking about the low entry semi companies, I’m talking about the leading companies that are empowering our ultrabook, 4G cell phone, ultra fast wifi, and super fast mobile processing. Their stocks just suck. I really cannot believe how cheap some of chips sell in your Samsung Galaxy or iPhone. The Qualcomm 4-core processors Snapdragon 600 sells $35 and the 4G modem for less than $20. And this is considered high margin product! The margin will drop because competitors from Asia are catching up (that’s why you see the price drop… margin will go lower). If customers don’t replace their phone every 2 years, some of these companies will just literally die.

They have the best engineers in the world, hiring hundreds Ph.D and Masters every year, invest billions in R&D, work 6 days a week and have stock that just sucks.
I’m not arguing with market. Whichever direct it points, it is the right direction. Now it just points to a direction that makes me CRY.

No position. May short $QCOM.
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Monday, July 8, 2013

Stock and ETF newsletter 7/8/2013: $KNDI, $NOK, $RGC, $DIS, $SNV, $SVXY,


$KNDI

I was considering this as a day trade candidate but converted to a swing. The setup is just good. Bounced on the gap up zone and broke up the down trend with volume. The better thing is there is more than 10% short interest here. Really want to see a squeeze.
I stepped in for pure TA setup, not for the fundamental. From fundamental side, there is nothing changed to me. $KNDI still just integrates EV – no patent in battery, motor or any control module. I definitely don’t see it as a potential “Tesla”.
There are two main events that triggered the squeeze today one is the official 13G filing of 5% passive stack and another one is from the Twitter of Jone Carnes @carnesjon (alfred little): “13G filing shows Heights Capital Management (SIG) client purchased 5.8% @$6. Sell-off is overdone. I'm long.” Please notice that the $KNDI already announced the direct placement of $26.3 million in 6/26/2013 and published in its homepage in 7/1/2013. And also notice that Alfred Little was selling short $KNDI in June.
Bottom line: I am still holding full position in Long (with great cautious).
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$NOK

It continues its break up and moving higher. Holding pretty well. I’m still holding full position here.
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$SNV

Today news is out that government will have more strict capital requirement on banks. Basically moved from 3% to 5%. I don’t see it as a big negative and also don’t see a negative react in $XLF. I’d like to hold $SNV longer. The only concern here is $SNV may give in at this up up-trend line. Will watch it closely in coming trading sessions.
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$RGC $DIS

$RGC continues higher today and starts to challenge the recent $19 resistance zone again. The setup is definitely there and I really want to see it break up with good volume. The $DIS is also displaying encouraging potential break up movement. I just need to see some volume on both of them. Still holding full position in $RGC.
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$SVXY

I out all $SVXY today with good profit. It has been up 12% since the dip in 7/2. I just don’t want to risk the profit into the earning season.
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Sunday, July 7, 2013

Stock and ETF newsletter 7/7/2013: $SPY $SVXY $UVXY $GLD $GDX $UGL $RGC $DIS $NOK $BBRY $SNV

Here is a quick wrap up of what happened this week and our sold and current positions.

$GLD $GDX $UGL

Friday's job number was pretty decent. It sent market and dollar $UUP higher. The raised dollar hurts gold $GLD -2.19% and silver $SLV -4.26% badly. Our exist of gold's bounce play in $UGL proved to be a smart move.

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$SVXY $UVXY $SPY

Our short in volatility since the market melt down in 7/2 turns out to be a fantastic play. It is up 7% in less than two sessions. I out half into strength before the holiday. Now still holding half in $SVXY.

The oil price just kept flying higher without any interruption by the news from Egypt. It confirmed our thoughts that the $USO has nothing to do with the potential Suez crisis. And to the broad market, I think it also applies. The melt down in 7/2 was artificial and maybe just faked by the bears.

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$NOK $BBRY

$NOK turns out be a candidate for a real break out. In this shorten week, I found it's difficult to read the volume but the price itself did display a promising up-flag break up. I am still holding full position here and want to see it challenge $5.

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On the other hand $BBRY is truly a sad story. The co. tried to launch quite a few new products this year but it just doesn't work. I don't have position now but would like to revisit this name when the dust settle. If it goes down to $6-$7, I definitely could see myself planning for a potential bounce.

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$RGC $DIS

$RGC is another name we added last week. It is holding OK and in money. The volume in last two sessions were really thin. Now it is less $0.2 from recent top at $19. The most recent two push up came with big volume. I will watch closely its price action this week. I would see a strong break up of $19 with good volume.

Compared to $RGC, $DIS shows some weakness after a 120% run since 2011 low. Maybe it just wants to use some rest, maybe it really wants to correct. The Long Ranger is definitely a failure but to short $DIS here is dangerous, the up trend momentum is huge. I'd keep it on radar and may even consider Long if it could break up the down trend line.

Now still hold full position in $RGC and no position in $DIS.

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$SNV

$SNV broke up the $3 resistance and squeezed up more than 4% last Friday. Our patience pays. This break up is significant and the space above is not explored in 2 years. The financial sector is pretty strong recently so I would like to hold my position longer even though it could see some resistance between $3-$3.5.

Still holding full position in $SNV.

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Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Stock and ETF newsletter 7/2/2013: $SPY $SDS $SVXY $UVXY $GLD $GDX $UGL $RGC


$SPY $SDS $SVXY

The market opened pretty strong but again capped at 50 SMA. I decided to throw in a small piece of $SPY short through $SDS. My original plan is to see it top at 50 SMA and slowly move down as a swing play. However the CNBC Egypt news kicked in and the market just plump. I really didn’t like it (even though I was in the short side) because the Egypt events should hardly play a role here. Suez canal blockade? Nothing not even close to it had happened since the 1970’s and now Egypt can hardly put a government together and people worry about she blocks the canal against the Western? No matter why market sinks and oil flies high, Egypt is not the reason.
I out my $SDS as a day trade and started to look for the stabilization and potential drop of volatility. When the $SPX stalled around 1608 area, I in some $SVXY. Market did squeeze back in the final hour and now the $VXY short idea is well in money.
Just after market close, Egypt government issued a statement that it will cooperate. What a drama? Let us see how the $SPY and $SVXY react tomorrow.
I’m holding $SVXY in full position.This week is a shorter week, so I will get out tomorrow no matter what.
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$GLD $GDX $UGL

The gold $GLD and miner $GDX retreated big today. Yesterday I trimmed 1/3 of my $GDX. This morning  $GDX shows weakness and failed to hold previous day’s range. I out remaining 2/3 when it failed to hold $24.2 with profit.
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It is a clear heavy day for $GLD, not only because it falls, it falls when the market sells. The $GLD proves again it is not any sort of “safe heaven” anymore. I out all $UGL position today with profit. The $GLD bounce played out well. In mid/long term, I think $GLD could still go lower. I may not touch it again till it run up/down of this gap area.
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$RGC

The fundamental is still weak but the chart looks attractive to me. Daily chart give me a potential break up, and weekly chart shows me a cup and a handle. It is not the best time to initialize a long as the hot summer days are always difficult to trade. I just throw in a small long position and maybe give it sometime to play out.
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Monday, July 1, 2013

Stock and ETF newsletter 7/1/2013: $GLD, $UPL, $GDX, $UUP, $NOK, $BBRY, $SAN

Swing Positions:

$GDX

Metal and miner are bouncing as expected. $GDX gaped up and held good in the first hour. There was some heavy selling but could not really pull it lower into last week high. Then it just trended high again. I out 1/3 $GDX position when it failed at $25. I still like this name but just think I’d better trim into the strength as my positions are too heavy in GLD and GDX. Still hold 2/3 $GDX.
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$UGL (long $GLD)

$GLD already moved into my first target area – the down gap last week. The $GLD squeezed after broke up $120. The volume is okay. I definitely want to see higher volume to confirm this fight way back up. If I see weak volume, I may out this position quickly; otherwise I may look into trimming into strength between those two gaps. Currently I’m still holding full position in $GLD.
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One thing I am also looking at is the US dollar, I hope it reaches its short term resistance here and hopefully tops or pulls in a little. If that happens, it will give metal more time/less pressure to do “died cat bounce”.
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SNV

Just another boring trend up day, with increasing volume. Look good to me as it broke the 2.85 level, formed a small up flag and now broke the up flag again. Some of the financial names just recover off people’s radar. They may be priced lower than $10, traded with lower volume, but if you hold it for a while the swing range could be huge. Buffet’s 5 billion $BAC Long was one of the most amazing play to me. And it was a great recovery story + brilliant dividend play.
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NOK

I have been holding this $NOK longer than a week now. It was moving into the right direction but got hit when $BBRY sink this week. Today $NOK jumped back 3%.
The reasons I like this name are
1. The chart looks good to me. The price broke up the upper trend line of 2-year’s down trend. Then it rode the 50 SMA up and now sits on 200 and 50 SMA. If it gave in, I know where is the support and where to stop.
2. The down side risk is definitely lower than up side risk. To be frank, there was no mobile device company just out bankrupt, no matter how bad it was doing. Ericsson, MOTO, Alcatel all were in much worse shape but managed to find a way out. The reason behind that are these mobile companies hold (more or less) some patents that others can not by pass, and the brands always worth something for those who want to jump into this market. $NOK is well backed by other patents and branding.
3. Low price doesn’t mean cheap. That is right. But I want to participate in the potential M&A rumor play. The $BBRY is hypo high and I would not use it in my swing play (I’d Long $BBRY at $3). This name definitely suites me better for this purpose.
I am still holding a half size Long in $NOK.
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Friday, June 28, 2013

Stock and ETF newsletter 6/28/2013: GLD, UPL, GDX SAN

Swing Trade:


$UGL ($GLD long)


Yesterday’s Long in Gold played out well. Gold holds the early morning sell and gave a big reverse with high volume. I expect the major selling by hedge fund in pain is done (at least in short term). Today is the end of this Qtr, some painful decisions have to be made in funds that are down huge with Gold.  I still hold full position and may see some players start to pick it up for next Qtr.
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It’s a Friday and only 3 hours into trading. Volume already comes big.

$GDX


Scaled in some pieces of $GDX this week. It has shown some diverge from $GLD. And today’s surge with volume is encouraging. I’d like to see it hold this $23.5 level and may start to challenge the down gap next week. Still hold in full position.
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$SNV


Have held this half position for a while start to see potential break up. Will just let it run. Set alert at $2.6.
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Happy weekend.
Peace.

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